AUD/USD in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range below 6-week tops set on Friday

15 Apr 2019

   •  Fails to capitalize on the prevalent USD selling bias and remains capped below 0.72 mark.
   •  US-China trade optimism continues to underpin Aussie and might help limit the downside.
   •  Traders now eye US economic data for some impetus ahead of RBA minutes on Tuesday.

The AUD/USD pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses at the start of a new trading week and consolidated Friday's strong upsurge to six-week tops. 

Chinese trade data released on Friday showed that exports rebounded sharply in March and eased concerns of a global economic growth slowdown. The data triggered a fresh wave of global risk-on trade and underpinned demand for the China-proxy Australian Dollar. 

This coupled with a broad-based US Dollar weakness, failing to gain any respite from the disappointing release of UoM US consumer sentiment index, provided an additional boost and triggered some aggressive short-covering move on the last trading day of the week. 

Meanwhile, the positive momentum stalled near the very important 200-day SMA, or just ahead of the 0.7200 handle, and lacked any follow-through despite a combination of positive factors on Monday - persistent USD selling bias and renewed optimism over US-China trade deal.

The greenback remained depressed in wake of comments by several FOMC members, which reaffirmed the central bank’s ‘patience’ on interest rates, while reports on Monday suggested that the US negotiators have softened their stance on China's industrial subsidies in an attempt to reach a trade deal

Traders, however, seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets and preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of the minutes of the RBA latest policy meeting, due to be published on Tuesday. In the meantime, today's relatively thin US economic docket - featuring the release of Empire State Manufacturing Index might provide some short-term trading impetus.

Technical levels to watch

 

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